A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

J B  Rundle; P B  Rundle; A  Donnellan; D L  Turcotte; R  Shcherbakov; P  Li; B D  Malamud; L B  Grant; G C  Fox; D  McLeod; G  Yakovlev; J  Parker; W  Klein; K F  Tiampo

doi:10.1073/pnas.05075028102

A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

J B Rundle, P B Rundle, A Donnellan, D L Turcotte, R Shcherbakov, P Li, B D Malamud, L B Grant, G C Fox, D McLeod, G Yakovlev, J Parker, W Klein, K F Tiampo

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38 Citations (Scopus)

Abstract

In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.

Original language	English
Pages (from-to)	15363-15367
Number of pages	5
Journal	Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America
Volume	102
Issue number	43
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.05075028102
Publication status	Published - 25 Oct 2005

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Rundle, J. B., Rundle, P. B., Donnellan, A., Turcotte, D. L., Shcherbakov, R., Li, P., Malamud, B. D., Grant, L. B., Fox, G. C., McLeod, D., Yakovlev, G., Parker, J., Klein, W., & Tiampo, K. F. (2005). A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 102(43), 15363-15367. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.05075028102

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abstract = "In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.",

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Rundle, JB, Rundle, PB, Donnellan, A, Turcotte, DL, Shcherbakov, R, Li, P, Malamud, BD , Grant, LB, Fox, GC, McLeod, D, Yakovlev, G, Parker, J, Klein, W & Tiampo, KF 2005, 'A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake', Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, vol. 102, no. 43, pp. 15363-15367. https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.05075028102

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T1 - A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

AU - Rundle, J B

AU - Rundle, P B

AU - Donnellan, A

AU - Turcotte, D L

AU - Shcherbakov, R

AU - Li, P

AU - Malamud, B D

AU - Grant, L B

AU - Fox, G C

AU - McLeod, D

AU - Yakovlev, G

AU - Parker, J

AU - Klein, W

AU - Tiampo, K F

PY - 2005/10/25

Y1 - 2005/10/25

N2 - In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.

AB - In 1906 the great San Francisco earthquake and fire destroyed much of the city. As we approach the 100-year anniversary of that event, a critical concern is the hazard posed by another such earthquake. In this article, we examine the assumptions presently used to compute the probability of occurrence of these earthquakes. We also present the results of a numerical simulation of interacting faults on the San Andreas system. Called Virtual California, this simulation can be used to compute the times, locations, and magnitudes of simulated earthquakes on the San Andreas fault in the vicinity of San Francisco. Of particular importance are results for the statistical distribution of recurrence times between great earthquakes, results that are difficult or impossible to obtain from a purely field-based approach.

U2 - 10.1073/pnas.05075028102

DO - 10.1073/pnas.05075028102

M3 - Article

SN - 0027-8424

VL - 102

SP - 15363

EP - 15367

JO - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

JF - Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

IS - 43

ER -

A simulation-based approach to forecasting the next great San Francisco earthquake

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