Cascade effects of global supply chains induced by regional conflicts increase global inequality

Regional conflicts have become prominent in triggering shocks on supply chains and cascade effects on resource management. Reliable assessments of the cascading pattern of production resources among sectors globally are missing. Here, we modeled global multisectoral production losses and the cascading pattern of a grain supply shock in the Russia–Ukraine regional conflict by utilizing a geographic input–output approach. We find that the most cascading losses emerged in the textile (17.04 % ± 0.72 %, 95 % confidence intervals) and food-processing sectors (16.85 % ± 0.5 %). The shock propagated in a “grain–processed food/livestock” direct chain and a “light manufacturing–heavy manufacturing/textile” indirect chain. Prolonged conflict and disrupted resource allocation decreased the efficiency of production recovery in low-income countries and amplified inequality of production resources. Our approach presents a quantitative framework for unexpected supply chain shocks. The findings support the case for production aid to low-income countries and circular supply chains for sustainable development.