Expectant management of tubal ectopic pregnancy: prediction of successful outcome using decision tree analysis

Objective To establish whether a decision tree based on a combination of clinical, morphological and biochemical parameters could be constructed to help in the selection of women with tubal ectopic pregnancies for expectant management. Methods This was a prospective observational study in a tertiary referral early pregnancy unit in an inner city teaching hospital. The study group consisted of 179 women with ultrasound diagnosis of ectopic pregnancy. Demographic, clinical and ultrasound data were recorded in each case at the initial visit. In addition all women had a blood sample taken for the measurements of serum beta-human chorionic gonadotropin (beta-hCG) and progesterone. Clinically stable women with non-viable pregnancies and no signs of hematoperitoneum were managed expectantly on an outpatient basis until their serum beta-hCG declined to