Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Antony J. Payne; Sophie Nowicki; Ayako Abe-Ouchi; Cécile Agosta; Patrick Alexander; Torsten Albrecht; Xylar Asay-Davis; Andy Aschwanden; Alice Barthel; Thomas J. Bracegirdle; Reinhard Calov; Christopher Chambers; Youngmin Choi; Richard Cullather; Joshua Cuzzone; Christophe Dumas; Tamsin L. Edwards; Denis Felikson; Xavier Fettweis; Benjamin K. Galton-Fenzi; Heiko Goelzer; Rupert Gladstone; Nicholas R. Golledge; Jonathan M. Gregory; Ralf Greve; Tore Hattermann; Matthew J. Hoffman; Angelika Humbert; Philippe Huybrechts; Nicolas C. Jourdain; Thomas Kleiner; Peter Kuipers Munneke; Eric Larour; Sebastien Le clec'h; Victoria Lee; Gunter Leguy; William H. Lipscomb; Christopher M. Little; Daniel P. Lowry; Mathieu Morlighem; Isabel Nias; Frank Pattyn; Tyler Pelle; Stephen F. Price; Aurélien Quiquet; Ronja Reese; Martin Rückamp; Nicole Jeanne Schlegel; Hélène Seroussi; Andrew Shepherd; Erika Simon; Donald Slater; Robin S. Smith; Fiammetta Straneo; Sainan Sun; Lev Tarasov; Luke D. Trusel; Jonas Van Breedam; Roderik van de Wal; Michiel van den Broeke; Ricarda Winkelmann; Chen Zhao; Tong Zhang; Thomas Zwinger

doi:10.1029/2020GL091741

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Antony J. Payne^*, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar Asay-Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Richard Cullather, Joshua Cuzzone, Christophe Dumas, Tamsin L. Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Benjamin K. Galton-FenziHeiko Goelzer, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C. Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Larour, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Christopher M. Little, Daniel P. Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen F. Price, Aurélien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Martin Rückamp, Nicole Jeanne Schlegel, Hélène Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald Slater, Robin S. Smith, Fiammetta Straneo, Sainan Sun, Lev Tarasov, Luke D. Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik van de Wal, Michiel van den Broeke, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, Thomas Zwinger

^*Corresponding author for this work

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Abstract

Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

Original language	English
Article number	e2020GL091741
Journal	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
Volume	48
Issue number	16
DOIs	https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741
Publication status	Published - 28 Aug 2021

Keywords

Antarctica
Greenland
ice sheet
sea level

UN SDGs

This output contributes to the following UN Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

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10.1029/2020GL091741

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Payne, A. J., Nowicki, S., Abe-Ouchi, A., Agosta, C., Alexander, P., Albrecht, T., Asay-Davis, X., Aschwanden, A., Barthel, A., Bracegirdle, T. J., Calov, R., Chambers, C., Choi, Y., Cullather, R., Cuzzone, J., Dumas, C., Edwards, T. L., Felikson, D., Fettweis, X., ... Zwinger, T. (2021). Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets. GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, 48(16), Article e2020GL091741. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741

@article{0e6db510be83471598cd7e0088a698ff,

title = "Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets",

abstract = "Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.",

keywords = "Antarctica, Greenland, ice sheet, sea level",

author = "Payne, {Antony J.} and Sophie Nowicki and Ayako Abe-Ouchi and C{\'e}cile Agosta and Patrick Alexander and Torsten Albrecht and Xylar Asay-Davis and Andy Aschwanden and Alice Barthel and Bracegirdle, {Thomas J.} and Reinhard Calov and Christopher Chambers and Youngmin Choi and Richard Cullather and Joshua Cuzzone and Christophe Dumas and Edwards, {Tamsin L.} and Denis Felikson and Xavier Fettweis and Galton-Fenzi, {Benjamin K.} and Heiko Goelzer and Rupert Gladstone and Golledge, {Nicholas R.} and Gregory, {Jonathan M.} and Ralf Greve and Tore Hattermann and Hoffman, {Matthew J.} and Angelika Humbert and Philippe Huybrechts and Jourdain, {Nicolas C.} and Thomas Kleiner and Munneke, {Peter Kuipers} and Eric Larour and {Le clec'h}, Sebastien and Victoria Lee and Gunter Leguy and Lipscomb, {William H.} and Little, {Christopher M.} and Lowry, {Daniel P.} and Mathieu Morlighem and Isabel Nias and Frank Pattyn and Tyler Pelle and Price, {Stephen F.} and Aur{\'e}lien Quiquet and Ronja Reese and Martin R{\"u}ckamp and Schlegel, {Nicole Jeanne} and H{\'e}l{\`e}ne Seroussi and Andrew Shepherd and Erika Simon and Donald Slater and Smith, {Robin S.} and Fiammetta Straneo and Sainan Sun and Lev Tarasov and Trusel, {Luke D.} and {Van Breedam}, Jonas and {van de Wal}, Roderik and {van den Broeke}, Michiel and Ricarda Winkelmann and Chen Zhao and Tong Zhang and Thomas Zwinger",

note = "Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project for providing support for ISMIP6 through the sponsorship of workshops and hosting the ISMIP6 website. We acknowledge the University at Buffalo for their help with ISMIP6 data distribution, and the multiple agencies that support CMIP5, CMIP6, and the Earth System Grid Federation. This is ISMIP6 contribution number 12. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 4. Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project for providing support for ISMIP6 through the sponsorship of workshops and hosting the ISMIP6 website. We acknowledge the University at Buffalo for their help with ISMIP6 data distribution, and the multiple agencies that support CMIP5, CMIP6, and the Earth System Grid Federation. This is ISMIP6 contribution number 12. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 4. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2021. The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.",

year = "2021",

month = aug,

day = "28",

doi = "10.1029/2020GL091741",

language = "English",

volume = "48",

journal = "GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS",

issn = "0094-8276",

publisher = "Wiley-Blackwell",

number = "16",

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Payne, AJ, Nowicki, S, Abe-Ouchi, A, Agosta, C, Alexander, P, Albrecht, T, Asay-Davis, X, Aschwanden, A, Barthel, A, Bracegirdle, TJ, Calov, R, Chambers, C, Choi, Y, Cullather, R, Cuzzone, J, Dumas, C, Edwards, TL, Felikson, D, Fettweis, X, Galton-Fenzi, BK, Goelzer, H, Gladstone, R, Golledge, NR, Gregory, JM, Greve, R, Hattermann, T, Hoffman, MJ, Humbert, A, Huybrechts, P, Jourdain, NC, Kleiner, T, Munneke, PK, Larour, E, Le clec'h, S, Lee, V, Leguy, G, Lipscomb, WH, Little, CM, Lowry, DP, Morlighem, M, Nias, I, Pattyn, F, Pelle, T, Price, SF, Quiquet, A, Reese, R, Rückamp, M, Schlegel, NJ, Seroussi, H, Shepherd, A, Simon, E, Slater, D, Smith, RS, Straneo, F, Sun, S, Tarasov, L, Trusel, LD, Van Breedam, J, van de Wal, R, van den Broeke, M, Winkelmann, R, Zhao, C, Zhang, T & Zwinger, T 2021, 'Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets', GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, vol. 48, no. 16, e2020GL091741. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091741

TY - JOUR

T1 - Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

AU - Payne, Antony J.

AU - Nowicki, Sophie

AU - Abe-Ouchi, Ayako

AU - Agosta, Cécile

AU - Alexander, Patrick

AU - Albrecht, Torsten

AU - Asay-Davis, Xylar

AU - Aschwanden, Andy

AU - Barthel, Alice

AU - Bracegirdle, Thomas J.

AU - Calov, Reinhard

AU - Chambers, Christopher

AU - Choi, Youngmin

AU - Cullather, Richard

AU - Cuzzone, Joshua

AU - Dumas, Christophe

AU - Edwards, Tamsin L.

AU - Felikson, Denis

AU - Fettweis, Xavier

AU - Galton-Fenzi, Benjamin K.

AU - Goelzer, Heiko

AU - Gladstone, Rupert

AU - Golledge, Nicholas R.

AU - Gregory, Jonathan M.

AU - Greve, Ralf

AU - Hattermann, Tore

AU - Hoffman, Matthew J.

AU - Humbert, Angelika

AU - Huybrechts, Philippe

AU - Jourdain, Nicolas C.

AU - Kleiner, Thomas

AU - Munneke, Peter Kuipers

AU - Larour, Eric

AU - Le clec'h, Sebastien

AU - Lee, Victoria

AU - Leguy, Gunter

AU - Lipscomb, William H.

AU - Little, Christopher M.

AU - Lowry, Daniel P.

AU - Morlighem, Mathieu

AU - Nias, Isabel

AU - Pattyn, Frank

AU - Pelle, Tyler

AU - Price, Stephen F.

AU - Quiquet, Aurélien

AU - Reese, Ronja

AU - Rückamp, Martin

AU - Schlegel, Nicole Jeanne

AU - Seroussi, Hélène

AU - Shepherd, Andrew

AU - Simon, Erika

AU - Slater, Donald

AU - Smith, Robin S.

AU - Straneo, Fiammetta

AU - Sun, Sainan

AU - Tarasov, Lev

AU - Trusel, Luke D.

AU - Van Breedam, Jonas

AU - van de Wal, Roderik

AU - van den Broeke, Michiel

AU - Winkelmann, Ricarda

AU - Zhao, Chen

AU - Zhang, Tong

AU - Zwinger, Thomas

N1 - Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project for providing support for ISMIP6 through the sponsorship of workshops and hosting the ISMIP6 website. We acknowledge the University at Buffalo for their help with ISMIP6 data distribution, and the multiple agencies that support CMIP5, CMIP6, and the Earth System Grid Federation. This is ISMIP6 contribution number 12. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 4. Funding Information: The authors would like to thank the Climate and Cryosphere (CliC) project for providing support for ISMIP6 through the sponsorship of workshops and hosting the ISMIP6 website. We acknowledge the University at Buffalo for their help with ISMIP6 data distribution, and the multiple agencies that support CMIP5, CMIP6, and the Earth System Grid Federation. This is ISMIP6 contribution number 12. This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agreement No 869304, PROTECT contribution number 4. Publisher Copyright: © 2021. The Authors. Copyright: Copyright 2021 Elsevier B.V., All rights reserved.

PY - 2021/8/28

Y1 - 2021/8/28

N2 - Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

AB - Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.

KW - Antarctica

KW - Greenland

KW - ice sheet

KW - sea level

UR - http://www.scopus.com/inward/record.url?scp=85113571328&partnerID=8YFLogxK

U2 - 10.1029/2020GL091741

DO - 10.1029/2020GL091741

M3 - Article

AN - SCOPUS:85113571328

SN - 0094-8276

VL - 48

JO - GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

JF - GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS

IS - 16

M1 - e2020GL091741

ER -

Future Sea Level Change Under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 and Phase 6 Scenarios From the Greenland and Antarctic Ice Sheets

Abstract

Keywords

UN SDGs

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