@article{ea3690fa70a744e2abe0bda4281501ea,
title = "Illustrative Multi-Centennial Projections of Global Mean Sea-Level Rise and Their Application",
abstract = "We produce projections of global mean sea-level rise to 2500 for low and medium emissions scenarios (Shared Socioeconomic Pathways SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5) relative to 2020, based on extending and combining model ensemble data from current literature. We find that emissions have a large effect on sea-level rise on these long timescales, with [5, 95]% intervals of [0.3, 4.3]m and [1.0, 7.6]m under SSP1-2.6 and SSP2-4.5 respectively, and a difference in the 95% quantile of 1.6 m at 2300 and 3.3 m at 2500 for the two scenarios. The largest and most uncertain component is the Antarctic ice sheet, projected to contribute 5%–95% intervals of [−0.1, 2.3]m by 2500 under SSP1-2.6 and [0.0, 3.8]m under SSP2-4.5. We discuss how the simple statistical extensions used here could be replaced with more physically based methods for more robust predictions. We show that, despite their uncertainties, current multi-centennial projections combined into multi-study projections as presented here can be used to avoid future “lock-ins” in terms of risk and adaptation needs to sea-level rise.",
author = "Turner, {Fiona E.} and {Malagon Santos}, Victor and Edwards, {Tamsin L.} and Slangen, {Aim{\'e}e B.A.} and Nicholls, {Robert J.} and {Le Cozannet}, Gon{\'e}ri and James O{\textquoteright}Neill and Mira Adhikari",
note = "Funding Information: We thank Kevin Bulthuis, Andy Aschwanden, and Robert Kopp for sharing and guidance on data sets. We thank the IPCC projection authors for developing and making the sea-level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool. All authors were supported by PROTECT, which has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant agreement 869304, except J.F.O{\textquoteright}N. and M.A., who were supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council London Doctoral Training Partnership. This is PROTECT manuscript no. 80. Funding Information: We thank Kevin Bulthuis, Andy Aschwanden, and Robert Kopp for sharing and guidance on data sets. We thank the IPCC projection authors for developing and making the sea‐level rise projections available, multiple funding agencies for supporting the development of the projections, and the NASA Sea Level Change Team for developing and hosting the IPCC AR6 Sea Level Projection Tool. All authors were supported by PROTECT, which has received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under Grant agreement 869304, except J.F.O{\textquoteright}N. and M.A., who were supported by the UK Natural Environment Research Council London Doctoral Training Partnership. This is PROTECT manuscript no. 80. Publisher Copyright: {\textcopyright} 2023 The Authors. Earth's Future published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of American Geophysical Union.",
year = "2023",
month = dec,
doi = "10.1029/2023EF003550",
language = "English",
volume = "11",
journal = "Earth's Future",
issn = "2328-4277",
publisher = "American Geophysical Union",
number = "12",
}